Propongo alcune cifre riguardanti la situazione demografica degli Stati Uniti in rapporto alle principali componenti etniche del paese. Ne emerge un quadro piuttosto allarmante, soprattutto considerando il profondo divario generazionale tra le cosiddette "minoranze" (Ispanici, Afro-americani e Asiatici), che complessivamente hanno raggiunto quota 100 milioni (pari ad un terzo dell'intera popolazione!), e gli Euro-americani, per ora (e forse non per molto) ancora in maggioranza. Questo stravolgimento del profilo etnico del paese è da imputare in larga parte all'immigrazione, soprattutto ispanica.
I dati che seguono sono quelli diffusi dal Census Bureau e si riferiscono all'anno 2006.
Composizione etnica della popolazione (stime al 1 Luglio 2006):
Totale: 298.213.628 (esclusi i Nativi Americani, o Indiani d'America, i nativi dell'Alaska e delle Hawaii, gli abitanti delle isole nel Pacifico)
Afro-americani: 40.240.898 (13,49% del totale sopraindicato)
Asiatici: 14.907.198 (4,99%)
Ispanici (Centro-americani e Latino-americani): 44.321.038 (14,86%)
Euro-americani: 198.744.494 (66,66%)
Note:
Escludendo le Hawaii, le "minoranze" costituiscono la maggioranza già in quattro stati: Washington D.C. (68%), New Mexico (57%), California (57%), Texas (52%).
Nel Nevada la popolazione euro-americana è scesa dal 66% nel 2000 al 59% nel 2006 (un crollo del 7% in soli sei anni).
Tassi di crescita demografica dei vari gruppi etnici (dal 1 Luglio 2005 al 1 Luglio 2006):
Afro-americani: + 1,32%
Asiatici: + 3,18%
Ispanici (Centro-americani e Latino-americani): + 3,38%
Euro-americani: + 0,26%
Ripartizione etnica per fasce di età (stime 2006):
|
Età
|
Euro-americani
|
Ispanici
|
Afro-americani
|
Asiatici
|
|
0-19
|
58%
|
20%
|
15%
|
4%
|
|
20-39
|
61%
|
19%
|
13%
|
6%
|
|
40-59
|
72%
|
11%
|
11%
|
4%
|
|
60+
|
80%
|
7%
|
9%
|
3%
|
Note:
L'età media degli Americani è di 36,6 anni e va dai 27,4 tra gli Ispanici ai 40,5 fra gli Euro-americani.
I ricercatori del Population Reference Bureau hanno verificato che gli stati etnicamente più eterogenei sono anche quelli che investono meno nell'istruzione.
1. Minority population grows to 100 million -- 1 of 3 in U.S.
Leslie Fulbright, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, May 17, 2007
The nation's minority population topped 100 million last year, about one-third of the total, and California had roughly 20 million minority residents, more than half of its total, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Between the rising minority population -- particularly of Latinos of any race -- and the low median age of Latinos, a new kind of generation gap is arising across the country, experts said Wednesday: Most people over 60 are non-Hispanic whites, and most under 40 are not.
California starkly reflects this new gap. Non-Hispanic white people account for 63 percent of the state's residents age 60 and older. But the population under 40 is 38 percent Latino of any race, 13 percent Asian American, 8 percent black and just 39 percent non-Hispanic white.
Some demographers suspect the new generation gap will heighten the nation's struggle to provide adequate social services and public education.
"The biggest problems will be related to language and culture," said Andrew Scharlach, a professor of aging at UC Berkeley. "The difference may make it hard for nonwhite elders to take advantage of services for English-speaking white elders. There may also be problems in caretaking of white seniors by nonwhite providers."
Mark Mather, director of the Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit in Washington, D.C., said researchers there found that states with the highest racial and ethnic diversity spend the least per pupil on education.
"It will be interesting to see if this new type of gap will affect funding for social programs and education spending for youth," he said.
The generation gap arises in part from a higher birth rate among Latino women, who average about three children compared to just under two children for non-Hispanic white, Asian and black people, said Hans Johnson, a demographer with the Public Policy Institute of California, in San Francisco. Mather said the chasm isn't likely to grow.
"We expect the gap to decline in the next 10 or 20 years with the aging of immigrants," Mather said.
Johnson agreed, noting that the immigration rate has been steady since the 1960s.
Latinos of any race were the fastest-growing minority group nationwide, reaching 44.2 million, up 3.4 percent from 2005, according to the annual estimates, which are being released to the public today. In California, Latinos also were the largest group, numbering 13.1 million, more than one-third of the state's total population.
The nation's Asian population grew almost as fast as the Latino between 2005 and 2006 -- more than 3 percent -- and much faster than the non-Hispanic white population, at 0.9 percent, or the black population, at 1.3 percent. But there are still many fewer Asian Americans than Latinos -- about one-third as many -- so the rising number of Asian Americans has not been obvious outside of heavily Asian regions like Northern California.
In addition to the largest Latino population, California has the most Asian Americans, 4.9 million, followed by New York and Texas. The nation's largest black population is in New York, followed by Florida and Texas.
Like California, three other states and Washington, D.C., are now more than 50 percent minority: Hawaii is 75 percent minority, Washington is 68 percent, New Mexico and California are each 57 percent minority, and Texas is 52 percent.
In 2006, the nation's black population passed 40 million, the Asian reached 14.9 million, and the Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander groups each reached 1 million.
In addition to Hispanic, both black and Asian populations got younger in 2006. The non-Hispanic white population was older than the population as a whole, with a median age of 40.5 compared to 36.4.
The Census Bureau's estimates have diverged from the state of California's for many years, and the state's have proven more accurate based on the federal agency's actual counts in 1990 and 2000, Linda Gage, a spokeswoman for the California Department of Finance, said Wednesday.
Gage said both the state and Census Bureau rely heavily on tax returns and birth and death records to create their estimates. But California's use of driver's license records enables it to track down many more residents, including those who don't pay taxes. She said that accounts for her agency's 37.4 million estimate for California's population in July 2006 population being 3 percent higher than the Census Bureau's.
The state has not released other estimates for 2006, but the trends in both agencies' numbers have been similar in most instances.
2. New Demographic Racial Gap Emerges
By SAM ROBERTS
Published: May 17, 2007
With the number of nonwhite Americans above 100 million for the first time, demographers are identifying an emerging racial generation gap.
That development may portend a nation split between an older, whiter electorate and a younger overall population that is more Hispanic, black and Asian and that presses sometimes competing agendas and priorities.
“The new demographic divide has broader implications for social programs and education spending for youth,” said Mark Mather, deputy director of domestic programs for the Population Reference Bureau, a nonpartisan research group.
“There’s a fairly large homogenous population 60 and older that may not be sympathetic to the needs of a diverse youthful population,” Dr. Mather said.
The Census Bureau estimated yesterday that from July 1, 2005, to July 1, 2006, the nation’s minority population grew to 100.7 million from 98.3 million; that is about one in three of all Americans. The new figures also suggest that many states are growing more diverse as minorities disperse.
As a result of immigration and higher birthrates among many newcomers, the number of Hispanics grew by 3.4 percent nationwide and Asians by 3.2 percent. Meanwhile, the black population rose by 1.3 percent, and that of non-Hispanic whites by 0.3 percent. (The number of American Indians and Alaska Natives increased by 1 percent, and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders by 1.7 percent.)
More than 20 percent of children in the United States either are foreign-born or have a parent who was born abroad. Nearly half the children under age 5 are Hispanic, black or Asian.
Over all, the median age of Americans reached 36.6 years, another record high. It ranged from 27.4 among Hispanics to 40.5 among non-Hispanic whites.
The census counted more than 73,000 centenarians (about 14,000 men and 59,000 women) and also 78 million baby boomers (those born from 1946 to 1964), who, as they turn 60, are helping to drive the racial generation gap.
While growth rates fluctuated, many states are becoming more racially and ethnically diverse.
“Hispanics are dispersing, especially from California,” said William H. Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution. “Texas is gaining from all racial groups, a true multicultural magnet.”
The changes have potential implications for national politics. In Nevada, where the share of whites has declined to 59 percent from 66 percent since 2000, the voting-age population has soared 25 percent, with minorities accounting for 63 percent of that increase. Arkansas, Georgia and Tennessee have recorded the greatest percentage gains in their Hispanic population since 2000, with the biggest numerical gains, predictably, registered by California, Texas and Florida.
The biggest percentage increases in black residents were registered by Maine, South Dakota, New Hampshire and Idaho, and in Asian residents by Nevada, Arizona and New Hampshire.
In New York and Maryland, the departure of non-Hispanic whites has accelerated since 2005. (California has lost nearly 100,000, more than any other state). In the same period, New York and Michigan have recorded a loss in black residents. (Louisiana, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, recorded losses across the board.)
The racial generation gap, Dr. Mather said, emerged relatively recently and may turn out to be temporary as the growing proportion of Hispanics, blacks and Asians gets older.
As recently as 1980, he said, the share of minorities in each generation varied by only five percentage points or less.
According to the latest figures, 80 percent of Americans over age 60 are non-Hispanic whites, compared with only 60 percent among those in their 20s and 30s, and 58 percent among people younger than 20.
Dr. Mather said the widest racial generation gaps were found in California, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas. In Arizona, minorities account for more than half the people under the age of 20, but only one in six who are 60 and older.
The smallest gaps were found in Hawaii, Kentucky, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and West Virginia.
Dr. Mather said the three most homogeneous states — Maine, Vermont and West Virginia — spent the highest proportion of their gross state product on public education.
“There does seem to be a correlation,” he said.
John B. Diamond, a professor of education at Harvard, said that “there are patterns of school funding that suggest that may be a problem down the line.” But he also said the impact might be mitigated by two factors. Because of persistent residential segregation, he said, elderly white voters do not necessarily live in the same school districts as young members of minorities. And, altruism aside, older voters may be persuaded that their pensions and other benefits depend on the income and taxes generated by a better-educated work force.
The census found that fully 21 percent of the nation’s minority population lives in California, and 12 percent in Texas.
Hispanic Americans, the largest minority, accounted for nearly half the nation’s population growth in the year ended last July 1
The nation’s black population surpassed 40 million for the first time, the Census Bureau said, and the number of Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders topped one million.